John Sessions, Forest
Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
The RPA Timber Assessment
projects a changing mix of types of forest products produced, rising prices,
shifts in regional concentration of production and changes in the
intensification of forest management for private timberland owners. These
projections both reflect and affect silvicultural options in the Pacific
Northwest.
Sawtimber prices are
expected to continue to rise, although at lower rates than the increase over
the past decades, limiting growth in profit margins without increases in
productivity. Pulp prices are expected to remain at or below recent levels for
several decades influencing options for density management. Market spikes will
affect scheduling of operations. Concerns for return on capital will continue
downward pressure on rotation ages and increase pressure on silvicultural
options to boost productivity.
Mill capacity in Oregon is
rapidly adjusting to available and anticipated resource supplies. Mill recovery
in smaller logs continues to increase, and the processing capacity for large
logs continues to decrease, raising some concern about the future of the large
log market. This, combined with rapid harvesting mechanization, has flattened
the cost curve with respect to log diameter and has raised questions about the
future of pre-commercial thinning, commercial thinning, and the rotation age
decision. Possible price differentiation for engineered wood products may drive
silvicultural treatments to improve wood properties for those end uses. Efforts
to identify which existing trees or parts of trees are most suitable will
increase.
Keywords: timber supply, timber prices, silvicultural
practices, mill recovery, harvesting mechanization.